Energy trends and prices: January 2026
Summary
DESNZ publishes monthly statistics covering electricity generation, consumption, and retail prices alongside broader energy production and trade data. The January 2026 data includes electricity market fundamentals, retail price movements, and EU comparative pricing. This is routine statistical publication providing market context rather than announcing policy changes.
Why it matters
Regular data releases provide essential market intelligence for pricing and investment decisions, though they reflect outcomes rather than drive them. The timing suggests this covers winter demand patterns and pricing volatility that inform capacity and flexibility investment cases.
Key facts
- •January 2026 energy data
- •Published March 2026
- •Includes electricity generation and consumption
- •Contains retail price data
- •EU comparative pricing included
Areas affected
Memo
What the numbers show
The January 2026 data will cover peak winter demand patterns when released on 31 March. Previous DESNZ releases have shown winter months driving annual consumption peaks and price volatility, making January figures critical for understanding system stress and seasonal pricing dynamics.
The release combines electricity fundamentals with broader energy production and trade statistics. This includes generation by fuel type, total consumption patterns, retail price movements across consumer segments, and comparative EU pricing data. The retail component captures both household and business tariff changes that feed through to industrial competitiveness metrics.
DESNZ publishes this data monthly with approximately 60-day lag, meaning January figures reflect outcomes from winter's highest demand period. The petroleum price component tracks pump prices and wholesale movements that influence transport costs and industrial input pricing.
Trends
Winter 2025-26 patterns will show against previous seasonal peaks. December data typically shows month-on-month increases in electricity consumption of 15-20% from autumn levels, with January maintaining similar elevated demand before February's gradual decline.
Recent releases have tracked the ongoing shift in generation mix, with renewable penetration varying significantly by month based on weather conditions. January wind output patterns strongly influence both total renewable contribution and price volatility during peak demand periods.
Retail price trends have shown sustained elevation since mid-2024, with business tariffs responding more quickly to wholesale movements than household prices under the price cap mechanism. January figures will capture any price cap adjustments that took effect at the start of 2026.
EU comparative pricing has consistently shown GB electricity prices above continental averages, though the gap has narrowed during periods of high continental demand. January's cold weather across Europe typically compresses these differentials as interconnector flows respond to temperature-driven demand patterns.
The production statistics track North Sea output alongside import dependency ratios. Gas production figures remain critical given system marginal pricing dynamics, while oil statistics feed into transport fuel price analysis.
What to watch
January demand figures inform NESO's capacity margin assessments for winter 2026-27. High January consumption combined with low renewable output would strengthen the case for additional firm capacity procurement in forthcoming T-4 capacity auctions.
Retail price movements guide expectations for April price cap adjustments. Sustained wholesale price elevation during January's peak demand period would feed into Ofgem's quarterly cap methodology, affecting 27 million households.
Business tariff data influences industrial strategy decisions. Manufacturing competitiveness depends heavily on electricity costs relative to EU competitors, making the comparative pricing component critical for investment location decisions.
System balancing costs spike during winter peaks when wind output falls short of demand requirements. January figures will show whether balancing mechanisms functioned efficiently during stress periods, informing NESO's ancillary service procurement strategies.
Interconnector utilisation patterns during January reveal import dependency during peak demand. High import volumes combined with elevated prices signal potential energy security considerations for future winters.
The petroleum component tracks transport fuel costs that feed through to logistics and distribution pricing across the economy. January figures capture post-holiday demand recovery and any seasonal refining adjustments.
Gas production statistics indicate domestic supply contribution during peak heating demand. Sustained decline in North Sea output would intensify import dependency concerns ahead of next winter's planning cycle.
These numbers will influence three immediate decision points: Ofgem's April price cap methodology, NESO's summer capacity procurement strategy, and DESNZ's energy security assessment for the 2026 Annual Energy Statement. Market participants use this data for contract pricing, risk management, and investment case validation across the value chain.
Source text
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[Home](/) 2. [Environment](/environment) 3. [Climate change and energy](/environment/climate-change-energy) Accredited official statistics announcement # Energy trends and prices: January 2026 Monthly production, trade, electricity generation and consumption of coal, electricity, gas, oil and total energy; retail price data, petrol & diesel price data and EU comparative price data. From: : [Department for Energy Security and Net Zero](/government/organisations/department-for-energy-security-and-net-zero) Published : 21 March 2025 Last updated : 13 March 2026  Release date: : 31 March 2026 9:30am (confirmed) These statistics will be released on 31 March 2026 9:30am ## Is this page useful? * [Maybe](/contact/govuk) * Yes this page is useful * No this page is not useful Thank you for your feedback Report a problem with this page ## Help us improve GOV.UK Don’t include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details. 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